Preface |
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ix | |
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1 Evidence of Climate Change |
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1 | (36) |
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1 | (1) |
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2 | (4) |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (2) |
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Climate Change in Every Corner of Our Lives |
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5 | (1) |
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Climate Change is Real and it is Dangerous |
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6 | (6) |
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Box 1.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Ice Ages and Interglacials |
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7 | (1) |
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Earth Resources Are More Depleted Every Day |
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8 | (1) |
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National Academy of Sciences |
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9 | (1) |
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10 | (2) |
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The Earth System is Changing |
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12 | (7) |
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12 | (1) |
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13 | (5) |
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U.S. Global Change Research Program |
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18 | (1) |
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Reliable Sources of Climate Change Information |
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19 | (6) |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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21 | (1) |
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21 | (1) |
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Climate Change Impacts in the United States |
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22 | (1) |
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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
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23 | (1) |
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Box 1.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: COP21 |
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24 | (1) |
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How Unusual is the Present Warming? |
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25 | (1) |
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25 | (1) |
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26 | (1) |
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27 | (1) |
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27 | (1) |
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Human Fingerprints on Climate |
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27 | (4) |
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A Consistent Picture Emerges |
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31 | (4) |
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Optimism about Climate Change? |
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32 | (1) |
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Box 1.3 Spotlight on Climate Change: Community Sustainability and Resilience |
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33 | (2) |
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35 | (1) |
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35 | (1) |
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36 | (1) |
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36 | (1) |
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36 | (1) |
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37 | (33) |
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37 | (1) |
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38 | (11) |
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Characteristics of Radiation |
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38 | (1) |
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38 | (1) |
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39 | (1) |
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40 | (1) |
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Energy Entering the Climate System |
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40 | (1) |
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41 | (1) |
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Natural Greenhouse Effect |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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Atmospheric Energy Budget |
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44 | (1) |
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45 | (2) |
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47 | (2) |
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49 | (18) |
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49 | (1) |
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Assigning Radiation Values to Human Behavior |
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50 | (2) |
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Radiative Forcing That Promotes Cooling |
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52 | (1) |
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53 | (1) |
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Water Vapor as a Feedback |
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53 | (1) |
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53 | (1) |
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54 | (1) |
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54 | (5) |
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59 | (2) |
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Box 2.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis |
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61 | (1) |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (1) |
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62 | (2) |
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64 | (1) |
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65 | (2) |
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67 | (1) |
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67 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (1) |
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70 | (34) |
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70 | (1) |
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71 | (1) |
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71 | (3) |
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71 | (1) |
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General Circulation of the Atmosphere |
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72 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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The Polar Cell and the Farrel Cell |
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73 | (1) |
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How Global Circulation Affects Climate |
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73 | (1) |
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74 | (14) |
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75 | (1) |
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Koppen-Trewartha Climate Zones |
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75 | (1) |
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75 | (2) |
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77 | (2) |
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79 | (1) |
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Temperate and Continental Climate |
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79 | (1) |
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Box 3.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Desertification Drives Tides of Humanity |
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80 | (2) |
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82 | (1) |
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82 | (3) |
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85 | (1) |
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Box 3.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: Arctic Meltdown and Dangerous Weather |
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85 | (3) |
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88 | (2) |
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Jet Meanders and Extreme Weather |
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88 | (2) |
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Ocean Currents Carry Heat |
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90 | (2) |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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92 | (1) |
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Global Warming Is Changing the Ocean |
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92 | (9) |
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93 | (1) |
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94 | (2) |
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96 | (1) |
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97 | (3) |
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100 | (1) |
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100 | (1) |
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100 | (1) |
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Warming and Acidification |
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100 | (1) |
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101 | (1) |
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102 | (1) |
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102 | (1) |
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102 | (1) |
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102 | (1) |
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103 | (1) |
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103 | (1) |
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104 | (44) |
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104 | (1) |
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Mitigating Global Warming Requires Managing Carbon |
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105 | (1) |
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105 | (9) |
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106 | (1) |
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106 | (2) |
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108 | (2) |
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The Imbalance of the Carbon Cycle and Its Impact on Climate Change |
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110 | (1) |
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What Temperature Has Carbon Emissions Committed Us To? |
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111 | (1) |
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Box 4.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast to Continue Growing |
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112 | (2) |
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114 | (14) |
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Is Global Warming Part of a Natural Climate Cycle? |
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115 | (1) |
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Box 4.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: The Uplift Weathering Hypothesis |
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116 | (3) |
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119 | (2) |
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121 | (4) |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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First Orbital Parameter: Eccentricity |
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125 | (1) |
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Second Orbital Parameter: Obliquity |
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126 | (1) |
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Third Orbital Parameter: Precession |
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126 | (1) |
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126 | (2) |
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The Important Role of Climate Feedbacks |
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128 | (8) |
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Why Warming Preceded CO2 Increase at the End of the Ice Age |
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128 | (1) |
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Rapid Climate Change: The Younger Dryas |
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129 | (1) |
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The Conveyor Belt Hypothesis |
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129 | (1) |
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130 | (2) |
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132 | (1) |
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133 | (1) |
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Dansgaard-Oeschger Events |
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134 | (1) |
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135 | (1) |
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Is Global Warming Caused by the Sun? |
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136 | (1) |
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Did Global Warming End After 1998? |
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137 | (3) |
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Do Scientists Disagree on Global Warming? |
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140 | (1) |
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141 | (1) |
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Is Today's Warming Simply a Repeat of the Recent Past? |
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142 | (3) |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (2) |
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145 | (1) |
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146 | (1) |
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146 | (1) |
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146 | (1) |
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147 | (1) |
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147 | (1) |
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148 | (45) |
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148 | (2) |
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150 | (14) |
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How Can I Keep Track of the Changing Rate of Global Sea-Level Rise? |
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150 | (1) |
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151 | (2) |
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El Nino Southern Oscillation |
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153 | (2) |
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) |
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155 | (3) |
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158 | (1) |
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159 | (4) |
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163 | (1) |
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164 | (12) |
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165 | (3) |
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168 | (1) |
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169 | (2) |
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171 | (2) |
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Alpine Glaciers and Ice Caps |
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173 | (1) |
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174 | (1) |
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Future Commitment to Sea-Level Rise |
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175 | (1) |
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Box 5.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Changes in the Cryosphere |
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176 | (1) |
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176 | (14) |
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176 | (1) |
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177 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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179 | (2) |
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181 | (1) |
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182 | (1) |
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182 | (1) |
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Adapting to Sea-Level Rise |
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183 | (2) |
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185 | (1) |
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185 | (1) |
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186 | (3) |
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189 | (1) |
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The Eemian Analogue and a Warning of Our Future |
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190 | (1) |
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190 | (1) |
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191 | (1) |
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191 | (1) |
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191 | (1) |
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192 | (1) |
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192 | (1) |
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193 | (45) |
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193 | (1) |
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194 | (11) |
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General Circulation Models |
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196 | (2) |
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198 | (1) |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (1) |
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Representing the Climate System |
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200 | (1) |
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201 | (1) |
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Box 6.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Research Groups that Model Climate |
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202 | (1) |
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Communicating Uncertainty |
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203 | (1) |
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203 | (2) |
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Historical Accuracy; No Guarantee of Future Success |
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205 | (1) |
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change---Assessment Report 5 |
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205 | (10) |
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206 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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Reacting to Climate Change |
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207 | (1) |
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CMIP---The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
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208 | (1) |
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Coherence with Observed Changes |
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209 | (1) |
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Representative Concentration Pathways---RCPs |
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210 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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Future Global and Regional Climate Change |
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211 | (1) |
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211 | (1) |
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211 | (2) |
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213 | (1) |
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213 | (1) |
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213 | (1) |
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213 | (1) |
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Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles |
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214 | (1) |
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Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility |
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214 | (1) |
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215 | (1) |
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Box 6.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change |
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215 | (1) |
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Additional Considerations |
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216 | (18) |
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If We Can't Predict Weather, How Can We Predict Climate? |
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217 | (1) |
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Rapid Warming by Midcentury |
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218 | (1) |
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Variability in the Pacific |
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218 | (2) |
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How Will ENSO Change as the World Warms? |
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220 | (1) |
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How Will Hadley Circulation Change as the World Becomes Warmer? |
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220 | (1) |
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Box 6.3 Spotlight on Climate Change: Record carbon dioxide levels in 2015 |
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221 | (1) |
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222 | (1) |
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222 | (2) |
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Impact of Aerosols on Hadley Circulation |
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224 | (4) |
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228 | (2) |
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230 | (3) |
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233 | (1) |
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234 | (1) |
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235 | (1) |
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236 | (1) |
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236 | (1) |
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236 | (1) |
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237 | (1) |
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238 | (39) |
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238 | (1) |
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Air Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the United States |
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239 | (4) |
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240 | (1) |
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241 | (1) |
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242 | (1) |
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242 | (1) |
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242 | (1) |
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242 | (1) |
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243 | (1) |
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Climate Impacts to Planning Sectors |
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243 | (20) |
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244 | (3) |
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247 | (1) |
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Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge |
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247 | (1) |
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248 | (1) |
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248 | (1) |
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248 | (1) |
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249 | (1) |
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250 | (1) |
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250 | (1) |
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250 | (1) |
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251 | (1) |
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252 | (1) |
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253 | (1) |
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253 | (1) |
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253 | (1) |
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253 | (1) |
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254 | (1) |
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255 | (1) |
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255 | (1) |
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Box 7.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Surprises in the Climate System |
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256 | (2) |
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258 | (1) |
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259 | (1) |
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259 | (1) |
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260 | (1) |
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Shifting U.S. Populations |
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261 | (1) |
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261 | (2) |
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Climate Impacts to Geographic Regions |
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263 | (12) |
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264 | (1) |
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Southeast and Caribbean Region |
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264 | (2) |
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266 | (2) |
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268 | (1) |
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268 | (1) |
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268 | (2) |
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270 | (1) |
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Hawai'i and Pacific Islands |
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271 | (1) |
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271 | (3) |
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274 | (1) |
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274 | (1) |
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274 | (1) |
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274 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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275 | (1) |
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276 | (1) |
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276 | (1) |
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277 | (52) |
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277 | (1) |
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278 | (9) |
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278 | (2) |
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280 | (1) |
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281 | (1) |
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Global Warming Attribution |
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281 | (1) |
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282 | (1) |
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282 | (1) |
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U.S. Climate Change Science Program |
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283 | (1) |
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284 | (1) |
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284 | (1) |
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285 | (1) |
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285 | (1) |
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Extending the Record of Extreme Weather |
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286 | (1) |
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286 | (1) |
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287 | (1) |
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287 | (1) |
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287 | (3) |
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Box 8.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Syria and the Rise of European Demagogues |
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289 | (1) |
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290 | (3) |
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Influence of Climate Change |
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290 | (1) |
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291 | (1) |
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291 | (1) |
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291 | (1) |
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291 | (1) |
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292 | (1) |
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293 | (1) |
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293 | (6) |
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293 | (1) |
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293 | (1) |
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293 | (1) |
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294 | (1) |
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294 | (1) |
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294 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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297 | (2) |
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299 | (6) |
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Estimating Climate Sensitivity |
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300 | (1) |
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300 | (1) |
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300 | (1) |
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300 | (1) |
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301 | (1) |
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Climate Sensitivity Ranges |
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302 | (1) |
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303 | (1) |
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304 | (1) |
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Carbon Trends and Implications |
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305 | (7) |
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305 | (1) |
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306 | (1) |
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1.5 Degree Celsius Very Unlikely |
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306 | (2) |
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308 | (1) |
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309 | (1) |
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310 | (1) |
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310 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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312 | (6) |
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312 | (1) |
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313 | (1) |
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313 | (1) |
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313 | (1) |
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314 | (1) |
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315 | (1) |
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315 | (1) |
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315 | (1) |
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Earth When It Is 3°C Warmer |
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316 | (1) |
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316 | (1) |
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317 | (1) |
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317 | (1) |
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The Socio-Economic Framework of All Humanity Is at Risk |
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318 | (9) |
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319 | (1) |
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319 | (1) |
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320 | (2) |
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322 | (2) |
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324 | (1) |
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325 | (1) |
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325 | (1) |
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326 | (1) |
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326 | (1) |
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327 | (1) |
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327 | (1) |
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327 | (1) |
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328 | (1) |
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328 | (1) |
Key Term Glossary |
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329 | (8) |
Index |
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337 | |